India: The economy has recently been hailed as the world’s fasted growing major economy. The growth rate decline to a six-year low of 4.5 percent in the September quarter of 2019-20, according to Reuters.

The World Economic League Table is an annual calculation by CEBR jointly published by CEBR and Global Construction Perspectives. The base data for 2019 is taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook.

According to a recent report by the U.K based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), India is expected to overtake Germany’s economy to become the fourth largest economy in 2026, and Japan to become third-largest in 2034.

The report titled “World Economic League Table 2020” said,

“India has decisively overtaken both France and the U.K to become the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2019. It is expected to overtake Germany to become the fourth largest in 2026 and Japan to become the third-largest in 2034”.

The report further stated, India is set to reach a gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 5 trillion by 2026, which is two years later than India’s government target. The CEBR also reported that Japan, Germany, and India would battle for the third position over the next 15 years.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the government’s target of taking the economy to USD 5 trillion by 2024 said,

“India is also set to reach a GDP of USD 5 trillion by 2026, which is two years later than the current government’s target.”

Although dark clouds are gathering over India’s economy are leading to many questions on the maintainability of the target.

Recent reports state former Reserve Bank governor Chakravarthi Rangarajan said,

“The current growth rate, reaching the USD 5 trillion GDP target by 2024-25, is simply out of the question”.

The report said,

“Slow growth during the years has increased pressure for more radical economic reforms.”

None of Indian data revisions mean that 2029 was the year when the country’s economy finally overtook the U.K and France.

Pablo Shah, a senior economist at CEBR, said,

“Despite the rapid ascent of countries like India and Indonesia, it is bizarre how little an impact this will have on the U.S and China’s dominant roles in the global economy.”

India, the growth rate decline to a six-year low of 4.5 percent in the September quarter of 2019-20, is mainly due to slowdown in investment that has now broadened into consumption, which is driven by financial crisis among rural households and weak job availability.